Being Confident Doesn’t Mean You’re Accurate

And don’t squeeze those lemons.

Thirty years ago this past January, McArthur Wheeler and Clifton Earl Johnson robbed two banks in Pittsburgh.
They didn’t conceal their faces.
Instead, they soaked them in lemon juice, convinced it would make them invisible to the security cameras.  (You might remember using lemon juice as “invisible ink” as a child – writing a secret message that appeared only when heated.)
Obviously they were caught.  (Maybe lime juice next time??)
And they became the inspiration for researchers David Dunning and Justin Kruger.

If you’ve ever heard of the Dunning-Kruger effect, that’s them.
Although there’s disagreement about the implications of their work, what seems clear is their finding that most people think they’re above average.
And others suggest if we lack the skills for a specific expertise, we won’t know how truly incompetent we are in that expertise (because you need those exact skills to assess oneself accurately.)

So, the next time you’re eyeing that promotion, ask yourself:

• How well do I understand what the role truly entails?
• Am I confident I have the necessary skills to succeed?
• And most importantly, What’s the basis for my confidence?

If you don’t have solid evidence to support your confidence, take the time to research the role.
We tend to form impressions about a job based primarily on our interactions with the person currently in it.
But do you really know what happens behind the scenes — the full scope of their responsibilities and challenges?
If not, time to dig deeper.

And you can leave the lemon juice at home.